Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Change Effect.
Monday, November 4, 2013: 2:20 PM
Marriott Tampa Waterside, Grand Ballroom H, Second Level
David Makowski1, Simona Bassu1, Davide Cammarano2, Senthold Asseng3, Jean-Louis Durand4, James W. Jones3, Cynthia Rosenzweig5, Kenneth J. Boote6, Frank Ewert7, Jerry L. Hatfield8, Alex C Ruane9, Peter J Thorburn10, Nadine Brisson11, Daniel Wallach12, Claudio O. Stockle13, Bruno Basso14, Pierre Martre15, D Ripoche16, Patrick Bertuzzi16, Jeffrey W. White17, Jon Lisazo18, A myriam19, Christian Baron19 and C Müller20, (1)INRA, Thiverval-Grignon, France (2)Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL (3)Agr. & Biol. Engineering Dept., University of Florida, Gainesville, FL (4)INRA, Lusignan, France (5)NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies, New York, NY (6)Dept. Agronomy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL (7)Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany (8)USDA-ARS National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, Ames, IA (9)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (10)CSIRO, Brisbane, Australia (11)NA, Thiverval-Grignon, France (12)INRA - National Institute of Agronomic Research, Castanet Tolosan, France (13)Washington State University, Pullman, WA (14)Department of Geological Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (15)INRA, Clermont-Ferrand, France (16)INRA, Avignon, France (17)USDA-ARS, Maricopa, AZ (18)upm, Madrid, Spain (19)CIRAD, Montpellier, France (20)plk, Postdam, Germany
Many simulation studies have been carried out to predict the effect of climate change on crop yield. Typically, in such study, one or several crop models are used to simulate series of crop yield values for different climate scenarios corresponding to different hypotheses of temperature, CO2 concentration, and rainfall changes. These studies usually generate large datasets including thousands of simulated yield data. The structure of these datasets is complex because they include series of yield values obtained with different mechanistic crop models for different climate scenarios defined from several climatic variables (temperature, CO2 etc.). Statistical methods can play a big part for analyzing large simulated crop yield datasets, especially when yields are simulated using an ensemble of crop models. A formal statistical analysis is then needed in order to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the variability of these effects across crop models. Statistical methods are also useful to develop meta-models i.e., statistical models summarizing complex mechanistic models. The objective of this paper is to present a random-coefficient statistical model (mixed-effects model) for analyzing large simulated crop yield datasets produced by the international project AgMip for several major crops. The proposed statistical model shows several interesting features; i) it can be used to estimate the effects of several climate variables on yield using crop model simulations, ii) it quantities the variability of the estimated climate change effects across crop models, ii) it quantifies the between-year yield variability, iv) it can be used as a meta-model in order to estimate effects of new climate change scenarios without running again the mechanistic crop models. The statistical model is first presented in details, and its value is then illustrated in a case study where the effects of climate change scenarios on different crops are compared.