Abdullhi Bala, Justin Van Wart, Kenneth G. Cassman

Nigeria is among the top three producers of rice, maize and sorghum in Africa, yet still relies on imports of these crops to meet national demand. By 2050, Nigerian population is projected to double to over 300 million. Whether or not Nigerian farmers can produce enough food to meet this demand will depend on the size and location of crop yield gaps and potential for agricultural expansion. However, preservation of natural ecosystems, an expanding desert to the north and competition with livestock-pasture systems make expansion of current farmland area a challenge. To better understand the potential for Nigeria to be food self-sufficient, yield gap analysis will be performed for rice, maize, and sorghum for currently cropped areas in Nigeria following methods used by the Global Yield Gap Atlas project (http://www.yieldgap.org/methods-overview). Future projections, such as demand and yields, will be derived from economic equilibrium models, such as the IFPRI IMPACT model. These projections will be compared against the current agricultural land and water resources and yield gaps. Additionally, we will highlight possibilities and limitations of agricultural expansion for these crops in Nigeria. At issue is where and how Nigeria might achieve its own food security without heavy reliance on foreign imports for these three major crops.