The Variation of Rice Models in Simulating Responses to Elevation of CO2 and Temperature.
Monday, November 4, 2013: 3:50 PM
Tampa Convention Center, Room 7 and 8, First Floor
Tao Li1, Toshihiro Hasegawa2, Xinyou Yin3, Yan Zhu4, Kenneth J. Boote5, Myriam Adam6, Simone Bregaglio7, Samuel Buis8, Roberto Confalonieri7, Tamon Fumoto9, Donald Gaydon10, Manuel Marcaida III1, Hiroshi Nakagawa11, Philippe Oriol6, Alex C Ruane12, Francoise Ruget13, Balwinder Singh1, Upendra Singh14, Liang Tang15, Fulu Tao16, Paul W. Wilkens17, Hiroe Yoshida11, Zhao Zhang18 and Bas Bouman1, (1)International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines (2)National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan (3)Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands (4)Agronomy, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China (5)Dept. Agronomy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL (6)CIRAD, UMR AGAP, Montpellier, France (7)University of Milan, Milan, Italy (8)INRA, Avignon, France (9)National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan (10)CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Brisbane, Australia (11)National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan (12)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (13)UAPV, UMR1114 EMMAH, Avignon, France (14)Soil and Plant Nutrition Division, Office of Programs, International Fertilizer Development Ctr., Muscle Shoals, AL (15)National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China (16)Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, China (17)International Fertilizer Development Ctr., Muscle Shoals, AL (18)State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
The impacts of elevating CO2 and temperature on rice production must be quantified for designing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies to improve rice production under climate change. Crop models are the tools to quantitatively evaluate the impacts. However, the quantification of the impacts may not be consistent with each other among crop models. We evaluated 13 rice crop models against multi-year field experimental data at four sentinel sites (representing different rice growing environmental conditions in Asia), and data from FACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) experiments at two sites. Predicted yield decreased with increasing temperature and increased with increasing [CO2] at all sites, but the magnitude of predicted changes varied among the models. The responses to a temperature increase were site-specific, but were little influenced by atmospheric [CO2]. Yield responses to increases in [CO2] were more similar across sites than yield responses to increases in temperature. Averaged across all crop models, the yield increases due to elevated [CO2] were similar to those observed in the rice FACE experiments, and had a diminishing return from increasing CO2 as it was enriched up to double concentration. However, the interactions of CO2 and temperature were not represented well by the models. Using the FACE data obtained from China and Japan, We are currently determining the sources of variation in the predicted responses among the crop models.
