Southern Africa Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project.

An expert team of climate, crop, economic and information technology research scientists from Southern Africa is evaluating the impact of climate change on the production and prices of important crops. The project will build human and institutional capacity to explore and evaluate these impacts and associated field management adaptation strategies on food prices and production in Southern Africa. The project team is testing the accuracy of models for staple crops using the models to estimate regional-scale food production for the period of 2040-2070 and identifying field-level adaptation strategies for maintaining or increasing yield, and evaluating economic impact of climate change on different farming system.

The case study presented is based in the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa, for commercial Maize farms. The crop model was calibrated for the local condition using observed climate, soil and agronomic data in the region. Past (1980-2010) and future maize productivity (2040-2070) was simulated using historical and projected future climate data. These results were used by the economists to run the Trade of Analysis for multi-dimensional impact assessment model (TOA-MD). Simulated mean yield for the 2040-2070 will decrease by 20% with an increase of seasonal yield variability. The TOA-MD projections indicated that farmers’ net farm return will decrease but could be offset by adopting at least 12% of new technologies.

The climate-crop-economic modelling is continuing to simulate the sensitivity of current agricultural systems to climate change, the impact of climate change on future agricultural production systems and the benefit of climate adaptation strategies.