A Parsimonious Method for Evaluating Climate Change Adaptation Strategies: An Application to the PNW Cereal Production.

This presentation discusses a methodology for evaluating adaptation strategies to deal with increases in climate variability and change in the context of dryland agriculture in the PNW.   The paper highlights the key characteristics and data needs for a parsimonious approach to impact assessment, the Tradeoff Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional impact assessment (TOA-MD), which simulates technology adoption and associated economic, environmental and social outcomes for regional impact assessment. The methodology uses the kinds of survey, experimental and modeled data that are typically available in selected US agricultural sectors that have been studied for decades by land Grant institutions/agricultural research stations. The TOA-MD utilizes future socio-economic scenarios based on new scenario pathway concepts being developed by the climate change and impact assessment modeling communities. Characteristics of current and future agricultural systems, including land use, output, output price, cost of production, and farm and household size can be analyzed and compared for both current and projected future climate with and without adaptation, and for different socio-economic scenarios. The TOA-MD approach is illustrated for a representative set of technologies that characterize feasible adoption patterns in the PNW.  The presentation will highlight the integrated efforts by the REACCH team funded by USDA/NIFA to address climate change in the PNW dryland cereal production.