Climate Change Impact On Crop Yield In a Rotational System In Michigan.

Abstract Future climate scenarios could be used to predict the impact of climate change on agricultural systems, especially on crop yields. Some examples have shown that future climate with increased temperatures will decrease global crop yields, which will raise social and economical considerations. Crop yield changes could be predicted using yield transfer functions included in crop simulation models. Therefore, we simulate corn yield production in a rotational system from year 1990 to year 2099 using DSSAT model. The crop model was validated with field data taken from the Kellogg Biological Station (KBS) in Michigan, US. Management conditions for future simulation were based on the conventional management in KBS, thus the crop model incorporate crop response to changes in temperature and precipitation based on actual management practices. The objectives are: (1) simulate the effect of change in temperature and precipitation on row-crops under Michigan conditions, and (2) measure the potential impact of future climate on crop yields while comparing to actual yield production.