Climate Change and Its Projected Impact On Plant Production in the Developing World.

While climate projections for the 21st century generally agree that tropical temperatures are likely to increase, there is less agreement regarding precipitation changes, particularly over land. In this presentation the projections of temperature, precipitation and extremes in tropical and subtropical regions will be reviewed. The tropical Andean region will be used as a case study, where recent research integrates climate, impacts, and issues related to policy.  The impact of climate change on agriculture will depend on what we do today to avoid negative consequences. Climate projections might have mixed repercussions on crops. Some crops and areas will benefit and some will be negatively impacted. The most likely temperature increases will not only have direct consequences on yield but are expected to produce an outburst of pest and diseases with consequences on productivity, use of toxic chemicals and incorporating natural carbon sink locations into agriculture to guarantee food production. This might generate a vicious cycle that must be avoided. The challenge is to generate and promote appropriate technologies, management practices and policies that might not only maintain or increase yield but to reduce the dependency on incorporating more land into agriculture and the use of toxic chemicals that affect the environment and people’s health.