Predicting Carbon and Associated Uncertainties for Carbon Markets.

Emissions trading, or cap and trade, is an approach used to limit climate change by providing economic incentives for achieving reductions and offsets of greenhouse gas emissions. The United States government has proposed to support clean energy development with a 10-year investment of US $15 billion per year, generated from the sale of greenhouse gas emissions credits primarily dealing with CO₂ emissions and sequestration. Carbon emissions trading is currently preferred by economists and politicians because it is an incentive based system for decreasing CO₂ emissions to meet obligations under the international agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol. Soil is considered to be a potential source for sequestering carbon and may benefit landowners by providing financial incentives for managing land for carbon sequestration.  However, we lack basic information regarding rates of sequestration and loss caused by different land use changes. To accurately assess impacts of management on soil carbon, accurate quantification and predictive models are required to establish baseline and improved conditions. This paper discusses current available estimatess, uncertainties and new digital soil mapping approaches that may be used to assess carbon storage potential and potential management options.