Cropping System Transitions in Mississippi: Linking Remotely-Sensed Production Patterns with Planting Date Probability Maps.

Landscape-level changes in cropping system dominance, such as the shift from upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to corn (Zea mays L.) in Mississippi has caused variably-scaled disruptions in the connectivity of science and the practices of crop care professionals. The “evidence-based agriculture” model prompts practitioners to keep track of a burgeoning knowledge base in a systematic way, however, dramatic shifts in crop sequences and planting intensities have produced inter-related complications challenging producers and extension specialists. In sharp contrast to cotton, long-term corn trials on experimental stations have not occurred; therefore, optimal planting intervals as well as yield penalties for continuous production are unknown. Geospatial integration of a 5-year corn production footprint (derived from 2009-2013 Cropland Data Layers) with a series of updated temperature-based planting date probability maps enables farmers and other crop professionals to adapt management strategies and minimize risk. The 5-year corn production footprint (estimated at 2.39 million acres) occupies 56% of Mississippi’s harvested land base (2012 Census of Agriculture). Over half of the counties in the Delta have invested between 60-85% of their arable land in corn across the 5-year interval. Washington, Yazoo and Leflore counties have sustained the largest areas in high intensity corn production with approximately 45,000 to 50,000 acres engaged at least 3 out of 5 years. Hot spots in continuous corn (in excess of 1,000 acres) were mapped to Washington, Yazoo, Leflore, Sharkey, Coahoma, and Warren. Spatial interdependencies of corn, soybean, cotton, and rice crops as well as implications for pest and pathogen resistance issues are discussed.  Development of an interactive, user-friendly, web-based version of these geospatial agronomic models is underway to further resolve the spatial patterns of extreme years where planting dates were delayed by the persistence of unusually cold weather when compared to the 30-year normal datas