The Impact of El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) On Wheat Production In the Southeast U. S.

Interannual climate variability causes high uncertainty on farmers’management decisions as weather and climate have a direct impact on crop production. Wheat production in the southeastern U. S. occurs during the winter months when climate is highly influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, a better understanding of the impacts that ENSO has on wheat growth and yield are key to reduce production risks. The overall goal was to identify the impact of ENSO on wheat production in the states of Alabama and Georgia (USA). Historic data from the Alabama and Georgia wheat variety trials collected at various research stations located in the north, central and south part of these states were used to conduct the analyses. In Alabama, historic wheat yield data (1982-2010) from six research stations were grouped by regions (northern, central and southern regions) and each year of data was classified by ENSO phase using the JMA index.  Results from Alabama showed that independently of the region, wheat yield was higher during La Niña phase but decreased with El Niño phase. Similar results were observed for south and central Georgia. In north Georgia, with less influence of ENSO, wheat yield was higher during El Niño phase compared to the La Niña phase. This study showed the potential impacts that ENSO has on wheat production. Future research will involve the use of crop models to identify the most profitable management practices by ENSO phase.