Assessing Impacts of Climate Change On Potential Yield of Winter Barley In Korea.

The CERES-Barley crop simulation model of DSSAT package was used to assess the impacts of climate change on potential yield and development of winter barley in Korea, and to examine the effects of simple adaptation measure, such as the alternation of planting date. Fifty six sites over the southern part of Korean peninsula were selected to compare the climate change impacts in various climatic and pedological conditions. The present climatological normals (1971-2000) and the three future climatological normals (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100), based on local A1B climate change scenarios of Korea, were used in this study, and the three future climatological normals were divided by three environmental conditions (only temperature change with future A1B climate change scenarios, only carbon dioxide change, and both), respectively. Results: (1) The CERES-Barley model was suitable for predicting climate change impacts on the potential yield of winter barley, because of the agreement between observed and simulated outcomes (e.g., the coefficient of determination of grain yield equals 0.84). (2) The only increased temperature effect with the climate change scenarios was mostly negative to the potential yield of winter barley and its magnitude ranges from -21% to +1% for the three future normals. (3) The effect of the only elevated carbon dioxide on the potential yield of winter barley was positive and its magnitude ranged from 12% to 44% for the three future normals. (4) For increased temperature and elevated carbon dioxide change cases, potential yields increased by 10% and 21% for the 2011-2040 and 2041-2070 normals, respectively, and then decreased to 19% increase for 2071-2100 normals. (5) For increased temperature and elevated carbon dioxide change cases, application of the later planting date with the increased temperature resulted in 15%, 31%, and 39% increase of the potential yields for the 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 normals, respectively.