Geospatial Analysis of Sustainable Biomass Feedstock Production Potential in the Northeast USA Sun Grant Region.

Development of a large bioenergy economy in the Northeastern USA will require dramatically increasing sustainable biomass feedstock production. Options include crops, crop residues, forest residues, dedicated perennial grasses, and short-rotation woody crops. We used geospatial modeling to integrate data from remotely-sensed land cover and surveys such as the Census of Agriculture. We also developed a database of experimental yield data for dedicated feedstocks such as switchgrass and short-rotation woody crops. We analyzed the suitability of land for perennial bioenergy feedstock production for 30-meter pixels throughout the 14-state Northeast Sun Grant region (Michigan to West Virginia to Maine). Specifically, we used the National Land Cover Database to identify pasture, hay and grassland. Next, we used a digital elevation model to remove lands with slopes greater than 15%. Lastly, we removed land in Federal ownership. The result was a geospatial estimate of land in herbaceous cover suitable for perennial bioenergy crop production (henceforth “suitable land”). We are currently examining competition for food and feed production on these lands.The four states with large the most agricultural land also had the most suitable land: 17,091 km² in New York, 16,178 km² in Michigan, 15,720 km² in Pennsylvania, and 11,505 km² in Ohio, 5,211 km² in Maryland, 3,416 km² in West Virginia, 2,134 km² in Vermont, and 2,064 km²  in Maine. Other states had less than 1,250 km². However the average productivity of this suitable land is less than current cropland. We are currently estimating potential yields on this land using agricultural survey data, our database of dedicated bioenergy feedstocks, and detailed soils databases (SSURGO). We are also estimating the potential production of both crop and forestry residues at the county scale throughout the region. These geospatial estimates will provide a foundation for strategic planning of bioenergy options for different portions of the region.