Integration of Biophysical and Economic Models to Study the Cost of Producing Bioenergy Crops in the United States.

There is growing interest in second generation cellulosic biofuels due to their enhanced potential to contribute to energy security, reduce greenhouse gas emissions while mitigating the food vs. fuel competition for land as compared to corn ethanol. Cellulosic biofuels can be produced using several feedstocks including crop residues and perennial grasses. This raises many questions on how and where to grow energy crops and the economic competitiveness of these biofuels relative to gasoline and their implications for life cycle greenhouse gas emissions. This research is inherently interdisciplinary and so requires linking biophysical models that can simulate energy crop yields with economic decision models that reflect the incentives of landowners to adopt crops and practices that lead to the highest return to land.  At the University of Illinois we are developing and applying an integrated systems modeling framework, to investigate the biophysical, physiological, biogeochemical, and economic determinants of the viability of large scale cellulosic biofuel-based energy supply. This framework incorporates the spatial heterogeneity in yields, costs of production and land availability within a region. Cellulosic feedstocks currently considered include corn stover, Miscanthus and switchgrass. The use of this modeling capability will be demonstrated through its applications to study the biophysical and economic implications of biofuel production in the in the Midwestern United States.