Estimating Changes in Land Use Under EISA.

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) mandates the use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by US transportation sector by 2022, 21 billion gallons of which must be derived from cellulosic sources.  Meeting EISA requirements with domestic sources of feedstocks could alter agricultural land use significantly.  Approximately 240 million dry tons of feedstock will be needed from U.S. croplands if no forest biomass is used.  A high resolution, integrated, socioeconomic-biogeophysical model linking the economics of land management with spatial data on current land use is used to estimate changes in land use induced by meeting EISA requirements.  Crop residues, perennial herbaceous grasses, and woody trees are all potential cellulosic sources within the model that can displace traditional crops and pasturelands.  Through the simultaneous solving of national feedstock prices and feedstock supply, annual market prices of cellulosic feedstocks are determined endogenously to fill demand levels with the lowest cost feedstock.  Regions of significant movements of land from one use to another are determined.  For example, it is estimated that there will be increased area planted in corn with a minor movement of cropland to perennial cellulosic crops in the Midwestern US.  Results also indicate that southern and western regions of the US will experience a movement out of traditional crops and pastureland and into cellulosic crops.