See more from this Division: Topical Sessions
See more from this Session: Phylogenetic Perspectives on Assembling the Tree of Life in Deep Time
Abstract:
Here, I present a novel approach to infer the true durations of taxa from their observed stratigraphic ranges and a model phylogenetic estimate. This approach follows the same logic as previous methods, namely that phylogenies imply gaps in the fossil record. Using a model phylogeny and the gaps it implies, I borrow the general approach of gap analysis to estimate per-interval probabilities of preservation. These probabilities can then be used to calculate the expected proportion of taxa with last occurrences in an interval that cross into the following interval, but were not preserved there. This approach similarly adjusts all first occurrences, not just those implied by the phylogeny. Some strengths, weaknesses, and potential extensions of this approach are demonstrated on several previously published empirical data sets.
In principle, this approach can be used to provide phylogenetically adjusted estimates of origination and extinction rates. Alternatively, it can provide more accurate results if, as in recent non-phylogenetic approaches, evolutionary rates and preservation rates are estimated simultaneously. The model phylogeny can constrain the range of possible parameter values, and potentially reduce analysis time and the number of required data.
See more from this Division: Topical Sessions
See more from this Session: Phylogenetic Perspectives on Assembling the Tree of Life in Deep Time