Climate Change and Climate Variability: Interconnections for Agriculture 2. Adapting to Short-term and Long-term Risks.

The prospect of global climate change adds urgency to the task of adapting to variability in the current climate system. There is an interplay between responding to climate extremes, especially those due to the major variability systems such as ENSO, and preparing for global climate change. Improved coping strategies for present climate extremes help farmers to develop resilience to future climate changes. However, a sole focus on current climate variability may divert attention from long-term trends of change and from preparatory actions needed to reduce vulnerability to such trends in the longer term. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines autonomous adaptation as ‘the ongoing implementation of existing knowledge and technology in response to the changes in climate experienced,’ and planned adaptation as ‘the increase in adaptive capacity by mobilizing institutions and policies to establish or strengthen conditions favorable for effective adaptation and investment in new technologies and infrastructure.’ Examples of these two types of adaptation in relation to climate risk management for agriculture will be given.