Predicting Long-Term Loss of Military Training Opportunities.

The future training/testing capacities of military installations and their surrounding regions are increasingly based on today's smart regional planning in collaboration with surrounding cities, counties, and states. Developing urban patterns around installations can be steered in a manner that ensures the continued viability of the installation to support today's and tomorrows missions. We have developed a two-step process to link proposed regional plans to future training/testing opportunities. The first step is to project future urban patterns that are likely to develop. This presentation covers the second step: identifying where, in future urban patterns, military training will be tolerated by people living near installations. Mathematical modeling approaches are discussed that convert projected urban patterns into maps of where noise, dust, smoke will be tolerated by surrounding communities, and where light from the communities will not adversely interfere with night training.