Studies exploring the impact of global climate change on agricultural
production generally suggest a probable increase in crop productivity due to
longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilization, with the potential for
negative production impacts in warmer latitudes. Projected impacts at regional levels,
particularly in the face of potential changes in precipitation timing and
intensity, are not well quantified and highly uncertain. For this project, downscaled
temperature and precipitation projections from the Hadley Centre Climate Model,
version 3 for the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change emissions pathways were used in conjunction with the Variable
Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology
model in a preliminary attempt to relate global climate change to the local
level where agricultural management decisions are made. Specific benchmarks related to agricultural
decision making, including planting dates and average harvest dates, were first
related to hydroclimatic variables for nine