Monday, 7 November 2005 - 9:00 AM
26-5

Climate Forecasts for Thermal Units Prediction: Chilling Accumulation and Winter Crop Development in Alabama, Florida and Georgia.

John Bellow, Florida State University, 2316 Beaver Creek Drive, Havana, FL 32333

The Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) is dedicated to applying advances in climate forecasting to agricultural and natural resources management on the consortium's website (http://www.agclimate.org). While ENSO signals on seasonal temperature and precipitation levels are well documented for the region, little work has been done on integrated variables such as chill units (CU) and growing degree days (GDD). The accumulation of CU and GDD are particularly interesting during the Oct. to Apr. period, when ENSO teleconnections strongly influence weather patterns in the Southeastern U.S. Analysis of historic chill and growing degree days accumulation patterns as a function of ENSO phase indicates chill accumulation for blueberries (Vaccinium spp.), strawberries (Fragaria spp.), and peaches (Prunus spp.) as well as GDD for winter forages is strongly influenced by ENSO phase. El Niņo events increased CU and reduced GDD for wheat in the winter months. La Niņa had the inverse effect compared to neutral seasons. Differences due to the use of daily maximum and minimum temperatures compared with a model of hourly temperature were minor. Predictable differences based on the use of chill units or chill hours indicate possible overestimation of chill using chill hours. There is potential for forecasting chill accumulation and crop development rates based on GDD using ENSO climatology. The presence of significant ENSO effects at the county scale is demonstrated and a potential application for producers described.

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