Thursday, February 8, 2007 - 11:15 AM

Farmer Management of Risk Associated with Climate Extremes as Indicators of Adaptation to Climate Change.

Jennifer Phillips, Bard College, Bard Center for Environmental Policy, Annandale, NY 12504-5000

Climate change is likely to lead to increased extremes of a range of weather events. Farmers are a climate-sensitive group and therefore provide an opportunity for investigating climate perception and risk management strategies with possible implications for future adaptation to extremes. Surveys and interviews with farmers in New York’s Hudson Valley form the basis of this study which focuses on 1) the role of cognitive biases which may distort mental models of climate event distributions, 2) planning horizons and temporal framing (expectations of future generations continuing to farm), and 3) characterization of climate risk management strategies. Collective climate experience among farmers in the Valley is long: greater than half of farmers surveyed are at least the 3rd generation to farm in this location. However less than half see trends in the current weather patterns, and although all agree that climate is an important factor in their farm’s success or failure, less than 40% see it as the largest influence reflecting the importance of other factors such as markets. A majority of farmers surveyed employ technological or energy-intensive risk management strategies which may increase long term vulnerability. Implications of climate perceptions and risk management strategies for long term climate adaptation will be discussed.