Linda Joyce1, Geoffrey M. Blate2, Susan Julius3, Steven McNulty4, Constance Millar5, Susanne Moser6, Ronald P. Neilson7, David L. Peterson8, and Jordan M. West3. (1) USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, 240 West Prospect, Fort Collins, CO 80526, (2) AAAS Science & Technology Policy Fellow located at EPA's Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC 20460, (3) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC 20460, (4) USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Raleigh, NC 27606, (5) USDA Forest Service, Sierra Nevada Research Center, Albany, CA 94710, (6) Institute for the Study of Society and the Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, (7) USDA Forest Service, Corvallis, OR 97331, (8) USDA Forest Service, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences, Seattle, WA 98103
Climate is a dominant factor influencing the distributions, structures, functions, and services of ecosystems. Changes in climate will interact with other environmental changes to affect biodiversity and the future condition of ecosystems. As part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4 (Adaptation Options), we are examining potential human adaptation strategies for climate-sensitive forest ecosystems that could be incorporated into National Forest planning and management to address anticipated adverse impacts or to capitalize on positive effects of climate change.
Historically, ecosystems have adapted to climate change; the ability of species to migrate and adapt has contributed to the resilience of forest ecosystems. However, biological adaptation may not keep pace with projected future climatic changes. Consequently, the future structure and composition of ecosystems and their goods and services may differ substantially from those that exist now. Human interventions may help maintain or even enhance future ecosystem services.
We explore two general types of human adaptation strategies—reactive and anticipatory. A reactive adaptation strategy would respond to or take advantage of climate-driven changes once they occur. Managers may follow this path because of uncertainty in future climate change projections and ecological impacts, the burden of ongoing management challenges, and other institutional constraints. In contrast, an anticipatory adaptation strategy would plan for projected climatic changes and their impacts on forests. Examples include on-the-ground management strategies that build ecosystems’ resistance to climate change impacts, enhance the resilience of ecosystems (i.e., their ability to recover from large-scale disturbances), and enable forests to better respond to a changed climate. We will discuss issues managers might consider when making planning decisions and how to assess implications of those decisions.