Allison M. Thomson and R. Cesar Izaurralde. Joint Global Change Research Institute, 8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201, College Park, MD 20740
Climate change will impact crop production as temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift. The magnitude of crop response and, consequently, the optimal adaptation to climate change will vary with environmental circumstances (soil properties, geographic location) and management systems (irrigation, tillage, cropping system). In this study, scenarios of future climate change are applied in simulations of all agricultural regions in the continental United States. A database of 7540 unique representative farms, derived from the USDA Natural Resources Inventory, was simulated and results aggregated to determine regional and national production of winter and spring wheat, corn, soybean, cotton and hay crops under climate change. Detailed management practices (tillage level, irrigation and crop rotation), and the resilience or vulnerability these impart for each farm, were considered in the simulations. Climate change scenarios for two future periods (2015-2045 and 2045-2075) were selected from GCM model runs using IPCC SRES scenarios (A2 and B2) from the UK Hadley Center (HadCM3) and US DOE (PCM) models. Changes in mean and standard deviation of monthly temperature and precipitation were applied to baseline climate (1960-1990). Climate changes and impacts on crop yield and production would be most severe under the HadCM3 scenarios and in the later time period. National production declines for all crops, except perennial hay, under HadCM3 by 5 – 15% in 2045 and 8 – 24% in 2075, while reductions in tillage had a beneficial effect. Production losses were smaller under PCM projections of climate change with gains occurring for all crops except wheat with adoption of reduced tillage practices. Results of this modeling study indicate the relative vulnerability of regions and cropping systems to climate change and explore the potential for adaptation through adoption of management changes.